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Part one is about how science works even when the public thinks it doesn't. Part two will certainly ruffle some feathers by offering a reason- and science-based perspective on issues where political correctness has gone awry. Part three provides some data-driven advice for your health and well-being. Part four looks at human behavior and how we can better navigate our social worlds. In part five we put on our skeptical goggles and critically examine a few commonly-held beliefs. In the final section, we look at a few ways how we all can make the world a better place.
* This is for the author's bookstore only. Applies to autographed hardcover, audiobook, and ebook.
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A general rule: don't forget the count the misses, not just the hits. Remember that there are ~8 billion people on this planet, hundreds of millions of works of fiction each with hundreds of details that can be construed as "predictions." Statistically speaking, just about everything should be "predicted" to some degree by someone—especially if you go back far enough. Now I will speculate outside my area of expertise: The city in China is known for "animal markets" where animals are traded and butchered on the streets—a place ripe for disease. The name "Coronavirus" has been around for a long time - The word was introduced by a group of virologists as a short article "Coronaviruses" in the "News and Views" section of Nature (vol. 220, no. 5168, November 16, 1968, p. 650) As a writer myself, I would certainly do research and use as many facts as possible to make my story more believable. |
answered on Wednesday, Mar 11, 2020 06:53:04 AM by Bo Bennett, PhD | |
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IMO, the fallacies are likely in the interpretation of the stories, when they are judged by current knowledge and reframed to emphasize what they got right. Multiple writers speculated on nuclear weapons, but none actually predicted them. If, someday, the process of anti-gravity is learned, there will be a similar look into old sci-fi to see who first imagined and told a consistent story about apples rising, when they separated from trees. I happened to have heard of some of the nuclear-weapons-predicting stories, but had to look it up to find the best of the earliest came from HG Wells https://scifi.stackexchange.com/questions/162986/which-sci-fi-work-first-showed-nuclear-weapons I believe the correlation of new information with old speculations has to be carefully considered before anointing it as prediction.
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answered on Wednesday, Mar 11, 2020 02:05:35 PM by DrBill | |
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To claim that this is a superstitious prediction would be an Unfalsifiability Fallacy. Because you cant falsify it or show it to be true or false. So, its a faith based position which might also be an appeal to faith fallacy. If you make 1000s of predictions, a few are bound to be right due to mathematical probability (especially with billions people though out time all writing information). However, if you ignore all of the ones that did not pan out, while only focusing on the one (or few) that did then I would say you are engaging in a cherry picking fallacy. |
answered on Wednesday, Mar 25, 2020 08:20:32 PM by Jason Mathias | |
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