Whose reasoning is correct.

5

Every year, Nancy's high school holds a musical performance night for the end of year celebration. The school is selecting players to perform and multiple instrument players are preferred but not essential. The school is selecting 40 people to perform at the concert.

Sam: "I have performed every year since year 7 so I definitely can perform this year too.

Jonathan: "I only play one instrument, so I have a small chance of being selected to perform."

If the information in the box is true, whose reasoning is correct?

I think Jonathan's reasoning is more in line with the information provided. The prompt states that multiple instrument players are preferred but not necessary, which supports Jonathan's claim. However, whether his chance is small is going to depend a lot on how many musicians he's competing against for a spot, and if there are any other selection criteria that weren't stated.

Sam's claim, at first glance, may look like he's committing the hot hand fallacy . However, if there's more to the selection than chance, his reasoning might not be bad. For instance, if he played every year because he's a particularly good musician, then his claim would be sound.