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Assumption of linearity / "Oven Logic"Often, we wrongly model things linearly, as if the variable x against some sort of common metric y should yield a straight line (or at least, we assume the gradient won't change significantly in the course of our data plotting). This is the incorrect thinking behind the fallacy of Extrapolation, but I wanted to ask about a more particular case. The reason this thread is titled "Oven Logic" is because this 'logic' is often applied to baking. Here's an example: Sara-Lee: Hmm. The recipe says 30 minutes at 150C. But I don't have time! I've got to get these cakes out so I can be at Kristen's birthday party on time. *shrug* I guess I'll put them in for 15 minutes at 300C instead; double the temp, half the time, no? But as it turns out, she ends up nearly burning down her entire house. 300C was too high. Why did this happen? She wrongly believed that a variable will produce a valid result if a second variable is changed 'proportionately'. So if x + y = z, 1/2x + 2y should equal the same z. Yet, the cakes do not bake like that. This seems to be a common error in reasoning, yet I get the impression that it could simply be dismissed as a factual error...which seems wrong to me. Is assuming linearity more a case of just 'sucking at maths', or does it count as one of the named fallacies on the site? (Or could it even be a new one?) |
asked on Thursday, Jun 10, 2021 07:37:28 PM by TrappedPrior (RotE) | |
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