Misleading Vividness

Description: A small number of dramatic and vivid events are taken to outweigh a significant amount of statistical evidence.

Logical Form:

Dramatic or vivid event X occurs (does not jive with the majority of the statistical evidence) .

Therefore events of type X are likely to occur.

Example #1:

In Detroit, there is a 10 year-old living on the street selling drugs to stay alive.  In Los Angeles, a 19 year-old prostitute works the streets.  America’s youth is certainly in serious trouble.

Explanation: While the story of the 10 year-old illegal pharmacist and the 19 year-old village bicycle is certainly disturbing, it is just two specific cases out of tens of millions -- a vast majority of whom live pretty regular lives, far from being considered in any “serious trouble”.  This is a form of appeal to emotion that causes us to hold irrational beliefs about a population due to a few select cases.  The example could have featured two other youths:

In Detroit, there is a 10 year-old who plays the piano as beautifully as Beethoven.  In Los Angeles, a 19 year-old genius is getting her PhD in nuclear physics.  America’s youth is certainly something we can be proud of.

Example #2:

It was freezing today, as it was yesterday.  My plants are now dead, and my birdbath turned to solid ice!  And it is only October!  This global warming thing is a load of crap.

Explanation: Whether global warming is a “load of crap” or not, concluding that, by a couple of unusually cold days, is fallacious reasoning at its finest.

Exception: If the cases featured are typical of the population in general, then no fallacy is committed.

Tip: Don’t let your pessimism or optimism clout your judgements on reality.