Question

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David

Is there a logical fallacy around "starting points"?

I was in my systems engineering night class the other night when in the midst of a discussion on systems acquisition, the subject came up of price quotes and how contractors come up with them.

It struck me during the discussion that there is a psychological phenomenon where once a person states a given value, people tend to structure their thoughts around that given value, even if the value has no real meaning in relation to the object being valued.

For example, if someone points at a tree and says, "How much do you think that tree is worth?" and gets a reply of "$250", people then tend to use that ""$250" figure as a value in their minds. They begin to think, "Is it less than or more than $250?"

The trick is that such a phenomenon can be used to great effect on the part of a person selling an object or service. A contractor, say, can state a price much higher than the actual cost as a negotiating tactic to bargain for an agreed upon service fee that in the end may be much higher than say, if the contractor started negotiations at a lower cost estimate. Hence, customers can fall prey to that initial "high ball" figure.

My question is, "Is there a logical fallacy associated with this phenomenon?" It appear to be a relation to "moving the goal posts," but is it a logical fallacy to fall prey to a seller "high balling" the cost of an object or service? Thanks- MUCH appreciated!

Dave
asked on Thursday, Oct 15, 2015 08:36:28 PM by David

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Answers

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Bo Bennett, PhD
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What you describe is actually a cognitive bias known as the anchoring effect . This was first described in detail by Daniel Kahnaman and Amos Tversky in the lat 70s. As a cognitive bias, it is more of our default reasoning pattern than an error with reasoning, so not technically a fallacy. Of course, like most biases, this one can be exploited to manipulate.
answered on Friday, Oct 16, 2015 01:38:39 AM by Bo Bennett, PhD

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