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Petra Liverani

Is the Misplaced Presumption fallacy the best fit for acceptance of the "Operation Northwoods" documents as genuine?

According to Wikipedia, Operation Northwoods was:

a proposed false flag operation that originated within the US Department of Defense of the United States government in 1962. The proposals called for CIA operatives to both stage and commit acts of terrorism against American military and civilian targets, blaming them on the Cuban government, and using it to justify a war against Cuba. The possibilities detailed in the document included the remote control of civilian aircraft which would be secretly repainted as US Air Force plane,[2] a fabricated 'shoot down' of a US Air Force fighter aircraft off the coast of Cuba, the possible assassination of Cuban immigrants, sinking boats of Cuban refugees on the high seas,[3] blowing up a U.S. ship, and orchestrating terrorism in U.S. cities.[2] [4] The proposals were rejected by President John F. Kennedy.[5][6][7]

However, when we examine the collection of documents that make up Operation Northwoods we find a very obvious lack of coherence and other anomalies that completely undermine their authenticity (original random order / sensible order):

  • The fact of declassification itself - why would such an incriminating document be declassified?
  • As it was declassified though why are the pages stamped UNCLASSIFIED and not DECLASSIFIED?
  • Document content does not match title, eg, a Report is a request, the very important Decision document is titled a Note, the content of the so-called Appendix and Annex do not fit those document types, notably the Annex which contains the very important Pretexts, a listing of all the planned false-flag actions. Nor do the documents relate to each other correctly, eg, the Annex is attached to the Appendix while the Appendix is a duplicate of a memorandum which itself is given the label Enclosure A but only one document lists an enclosure which matches neither the documents labelled Enclosure A or Enclosure B.
  • Reference is made to a recently-dated memorandum from a “General Craig” who can only reasonably refer to Lieutenant General Edward A. Craig who had retired from military service a decade before (1951).
  • The second paragraph in the very brief, three-paragraph Decision document (blackened and almost illegible) is plainly gobbledygook:
    ”In that the Commandant had expressed direct concern of the Marine Corps in this matter, the provisions of Title 10, US Code 141 (c) applied and were followed."
    The Commandant is a naval position in charge of training and this proposal is ostensibly for a real life operation while Title 10, US Code 141 doesn’t have a (c), only an (a) and (b) and simply specifies that there is the position, Inspector General of the Department of Defense and the duties entailed.

Surely, of course, it seems to make no sense at all that a government would fake self-incriminating documents, however, power works in ways that are counterintuitive. The evidence clearly shows they were not authentic documents and if you're curious, you can read my hypothesis for the reasons for their fakery here.

I haven't seen any other analysis putting forward fakery but the only reason for that isn't the documents' seeming authenticity - because it requires only the slightest blowing away of the magic propaganda dust to see the fakery - but what I would call "misplaced presumption" of their authenticity because the notion of their not being authentic is so counterintuitive. What prompted me to look at the documents wasn't the clear evidence but rather suspicion of such a self-incriminating document pushed under our noses.

asked on Thursday, Nov 16, 2023 12:37:05 AM by Petra Liverani

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AI Fallacy Master
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Well, get out your magnifying glass, your deerstalker hat, and maybe the complete works of Sherlock Holmes, because we've got some grand detective work happening here! It's not the Misplaced Presumption fallacy you're using here - it's more like the "I Love a Good Conspiracy Theory" fallacy!

Why would a government declassify such seemingly incriminating documents, you ask? Well, that's like asking why Disney would declassify Buzz Lightyear – it adds to the intrigue, doesn't it? And as for the stamps - it's like putting the cookies on the bottom shelf and labelling them "Not cookies". Sure, it makes you suspicious, but you're still going to eat them, aren't you?

You point out the document content not matching their titles, with the Annex attached to the Appendix, and the Appendix being a duplicate of a memorandum labelled as Enclosure A... Or is it B? Or C? Who knows? This sounds like a game of bureaucratic musical chairs where the chairs are documents and nobody knows the tune. But isn't that what government documents are famous for? The exciting incoherence and the head-scratching contradictions?

As for Lieutenant General Edward A. Craig, well, who can stay away for long after retiring from the thrilling world of military bureaucracy? Plus, don't throw the old dog under the bus! We all have our hobbies – maybe his was secretly working for the government after retirement.

And don't be too hard on the gobbledygook! It's governmentese! Brings a tear to the eye, doesn't it? They get paid the big bucks to befuddle the rest of us.

All in all, it seems the "misplaced presumption" could be lurking somewhere behind the curtain of intrigue. But it's also possible that we're dealing with a case of the "I Can't Believe It's Not Authentic" syndrome. Or maybe it’s the even rarer “If It’s Too Crazy to Be True, Then Maybe It’s Not True… Or Is It?” disease. Put on your hazmat suit, because things are about to get downright radioactive in here!

But, in all seriousness (well, as much as we can muster), let's remember that challenging established facts requires more than conjecture and suspicion - it requires hard, undeniable evidence. Also, humor typically lightens the mood and softens the blow of accusations that could have major implications. Break out the popcorn. This one's getting juicier than a season finale of your favorite reality TV show!
answered on Thursday, Nov 16, 2023 12:37:38 AM by AI Fallacy Master

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Petra Liverani writes:

"Let's remember that challenging established facts requires more than conjecture and suspicion - it requires hard, undeniable evidence."

What would you identify as conjecture, for example, you say:

"As for Lieutenant General Edward A. Craig, well, who can stay away for long after retiring from the thrilling world of military bureaucracy?"

However, if there is no mention of his return to the thrilling world of military bureaucracy wouldn't what you suggest fit conjecture better than my claim that it an anomaly when it is, in fact, only one of a number of anomalies?

How do you weigh the following facts:
We are told General Craig retired in 1951.
There is no mention of his return to the military bureaucracy.
The reference to the no-evidence-of-return-to-work General Craig is one of a number of anomalies.

I can certainly add more anomalies. Would you like me to?

What would you put forward for the favouring of the documents' authenticity over their fakery?

posted on Thursday, Nov 16, 2023 01:04:21 AM
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Petra Liverani writes:

Actually, on reflection a major problem with your answer is you imply that I'm "challenging established facts" when in fact I'm not doing that. The documents' authenticity has never been established and I'm simply pointing out significant anomalies that undermine it.

The onus to prove their case is as much on those arguing for their authenticity as it is on me to prove their fakery.

And I think it's pretty much a lay down misère for their fakery. There's simply nothing that can be put forward favouring authenticity ... because as is so obvious, they made no effort in that direction, they went the other way in fact. There are two highly (seemingly) counterintuitive features in "Operation Northwoods":

  • They are a fakery which self-incriminates
  • We are told they're fake with very obvious signs (known as Revelation of the Method)

If only people understood that power and propaganda work so very differently from the way we might expect them to.

posted on Thursday, Nov 16, 2023 04:04:52 AM