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No. First, because a hypothesis is almost never ready for that sort of test. The single example imo* is the simple form of Earth's gravity, which proceeded from the commonplace observation that stuff you drop falls to Earth, so that if the hypothesis were "every solid thing on Earth is attracted to it", there would be no evidence to contradict it, since nothing condensed to solid ever simply rises if released. The Newton/apple story is apocryphal of course, but a single apple that, freed from its tree. went higher than its connecting point, would have demolished the hypothesis. *It is surprisingly complicated to write the hypothesis so it includes all the possible exceptions in a general and concise way. Let me propose that the hypothesis of gravity is in fact the exception that proves the rule. For almost all (or all, that I know of) hypotheses, we are constrained by our ability to detect or recognize an effect and are often also limited by our ability to detect or recognize a possible cause. If we wait for perfect knowledge, we're subject to the Nirvana Fallacy and the demand that all evidence support the hypothesis, as proposed by the question, is then that fallacy, In the 3-400 years since the Newton version of the gravity hypothesis, we had no basis for denying it, and might have been tempted to assert it as beyond all shadow of a doubt, a platinum standard only possibly achieved by the acceptance of thermodynamics' conclusion that there can be (not merely are, but can be) no perpetual motion machine. Along came Albert, (the only scientist as famous by one name as a modern singer), and oops, the Newton apple cart is upset. Our courts do not demand "beyond all doubt", in part because our data is incomplete, imperfect, perhaps even biased, but rather asks for proof "beyond a reasonable doubt" to convict a suspect. Science's demands are harder, but a demand that there be no exceptions in the data is itself a fallacy, so in the name of protecting from the Cherry Picking fallacy, it would institute its own Nirvana Fallacy.
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answered on Friday, Apr 17, 2020 04:05:05 PM by DrBill | |
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