Fallacy: Record snowfall debunks global warming
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Original Question
When media headlines announce a major unexpected snowfall, many people exclaim, "This proves the Earth is cooling, not warming up!"
Their logic is simple: Snow requires cold weather, therefore, record snowfall must indicate record cold, not warming.
But the apparent logic is deceptive. Snowfall is also determined by other variables, including precipitation. In fact, global warming models predict more erratic weather, with increased drought in many locations along with increased precipitation (including snowfall) in others.
This is a tricky one, because a well-meaning person can unwittingly use it as an example of logic, while a propagandist may know it's BS. So I'm guessing it might or might not be called a fallacy, depending on how it's used. Is that correct?
What kind of fallacy would you call it?
Thanks.
Their logic is simple: Snow requires cold weather, therefore, record snowfall must indicate record cold, not warming.
But the apparent logic is deceptive. Snowfall is also determined by other variables, including precipitation. In fact, global warming models predict more erratic weather, with increased drought in many locations along with increased precipitation (including snowfall) in others.
This is a tricky one, because a well-meaning person can unwittingly use it as an example of logic, while a propagandist may know it's BS. So I'm guessing it might or might not be called a fallacy, depending on how it's used. Is that correct?
What kind of fallacy would you call it?
Thanks.
Answers
1That's a common one. People are confusing weather with climate. This is like claiming that a cancer patient is in remission because they are having a good day. I would say that this is a result of general ignorance (lack of understanding in the difference between climate and weather) and fallacious thinking. The fallacy, or class of fallacies, would have to do with hasty generalization or drawing a conclusion from a small sample (favoring a sample size of one - the cold day - over decades of data).
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