If I die then I have a weak immune system
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Original Question
I have friend who was diagnosed with leukemia. He has a 25 percent chance of living even with the chemo. He has refused to take the chemo. He said that even if chemo had a 100 percent chance of curing him he would still not take it. He believes what many homeopathic-type people believe: that a healthy person can fend off any disease, even aggressive cancers, if they have a strong immune system.
I could simplify one of his arguments as follows...
If I have a strong immune system then I beat the cancer. If I have a weak immune system then I die. This must be a specific fallacy.
He, of course, believes that his immune system is weak because of unspecified toxins and if the toxins are removed then his immune system will improve and then he might beat back the cancer.
I tried to explain to him to no avail that humans are mortal and many diseases kill you no matter the strength of your immune system.
Answers
2The advice you give your friend could be literally life-saving. I would buy the book, The Skeptic's Guide to the Universe, and flag the chapter on homeopathy for him. Highlight the key parts, then FedEx him the book (assuming not local). Beg him to read the section carefully and ask you any questions.
Honestly, I am not sure how wrong he is about his immune system claim. People do beat cancer and some of the other bad diseases without treatment, likely (but not certainly) due to the immune system (see https://www.cancer.gov/about-cancer/treatment/types/immunotherapy - although a treatment, it is about the immune system). The problem is all the pseudoscience surrounding how to have a strong immune system. Homeopathy is certainly a load of bunk, which means, his belief that he is building a strong immune system when he is actually not almost certainly will kill him.
If I have a strong immune system then I beat the cancer. If I have a weak immune system then I die.
These are just two claims, nothing more. The claims are problematic because it is not as simple as "strong" and "weak" resulting in life or death. Granted, this is outside my area of expertise, but from what I understand one's immune system can be ideal at fighting off some diseases but not others. In other words, it can be generally very strong, but it is no match for an aggressive leukemia. Also, a weak immune system can be compensated for by modern medicine and therapies, so the claim "if I have a weak immune system then I die" is a statement of probability, strongly moderated by if the person refuses medical treatment or not.
Of course, we are not the best people to educate him on the pros and cons of the different treatments for leukemia. Perhaps the best thing you can do for your friend is to get him to simply talk to a oncologist. This might be pointless if he believes that western medicine is evil and the oncologist is part of the "scam," thus the aforementioned book would be a good precursor to the consultation.
This is a restatement of the same subjectivist fallacy we discussed a couple days ago at www.logicallyfallacious.c. . .
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