is there an error in reasoning here?

Inductive Reasoning?

Context matters. On the surface, this looks reasonable, and perhaps in most cases is a reasonable, probabilistic statement. But imagine one is at a gay bar and says "Most people are heterosexual, therefore the patrons of this bar are likely to be heterosexual." This is fallacy involving ignoring context (no name for it that I know of). Pretty much the opposite of base rate fallacy .