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Analyzing the Appeal to Consensus

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Original Question

I'm exploring the appeal to consensus and would like to make a list of fallacies it incorporates or is related to. This is my preliminary list:


1. An appeal to consensus could be nothing more than a bald-faced lie.


2.  It could also be an example of cherry-picking; some power broker just hand-picked a group of scientists to query.


3. The "scientists" who were queried aren't real scientists. (What kind of fallacy would that be?)


4. The scientists were paid to take  part in a survey.


5. It could be an example of ambiguity;  exactly  what does a person mean by "consensus"? Are they talking about a poll?


It seems like a person invoking a consensus could play any number of statistical games. Can anyone suggest other fallacies or pseudo-fallacies that might relate to the appeal to consensus?


Thanks.


P.S. In Logically Fallacious , argument from consensus is listed as a synonym of appeal to common belief. I'm talking about a more specific appeal to consensus, like the claim that there's a consensus among scientists that genetically modified food is safe for consumption.

Comments on Question

I think you're speculating on a broad range of unrelated issues.


Scientists (and other experts) judge evidence by the standards of their specialties. However, people who don't understand the complexities of a science need to rely on the opinions held by the largest number of the most qualified scientists or experts. That's imperfect, but it's not a fallacy. 


Yes, scientists can sometimes be corrupted or misinterpreted. That's why I use Google Scholar and look up the actual reports that the scientists themselves have written. That way I can avoid filters. I also look at their funding sources, which are reported in the scientific journal articles. 


Science is always open to revision as new evidence becomes known. 


It's good to be careful, but not good to be cynical. Have a great day. 

Let's try again:


Let me suggest some tentative ways to evaluate an appeal to expert consensus:


1. The consensus must be held by recognized experts/specialists in the field.


2. The experts must have specialized training and experience before they can join in an expert consensus. 


3. The consensus must be widely shared among qualified experts. Perhaps we could insist that 90% of recognized experts must share the opinion before we can call it a consensus. 


4. Always be aware that new evidence can appear that could discredit the old consensus, presumably leading to a new consensus. 


Note that it is possible to have a consensus of people who aren't experts. That can be interesting, but I wouldn't want to use it as an argument premise. That just evolves into appeal to popular belief. For example, most people believe that lie detectors are reliable and accurate. So, there is a consensus among the public. However, psychologists have studied lie detection in literally thousands of studies and concluded scientifically that lie detection is woefully inaccurate. 


Interesting twist: many law enforcement officials think that lie detectors are accurate. Aren't they also qualified experts? So we could have two conflicting consensuses between two different groups. Tricky.  


In the news media, the most common error is to violate #2. On Fox News, for example, I have noticed that it is common to hear views from people who are woefully unqualified. A consensus of Fox News pundits would not impress me unless the pundits have independently verified credentials. 


Also, elsewhere in fallacy books (including Dr. Bo's), one can find ways to evaluate experts and authorities. See his chapter on the Appeal to False Authority. 

I posted them a few minutes ago. Here we are again. http://harpine.blogspot.com/p/william-d-harpines-publications.html


Or you can search William Harpine Fallacy on https://scholar.google.com


 


 

I am not sure what you are asking and judging by the other responses I don't think others are either. Are you asking how some people use the "appeal to consensus" fallacy erroneously? That is, they claim fallacy when it is really not?


One thing to keep in mind is that there is a legitimate appeal to consensus and a fallacious one. Perhaps you are asking in which ways is appealing to a consensus legitimate and in which ways it is fallacious? This would actually be a good reference to make.

Answers

3

Certainly. Thanks for asking. Here's a publication list. There are links to most of them. (If not available full-text, your public library can probably get them for you on their databases). 


http://harpine.blogspot.com/p/william-d-harpines-publications.html 

It sounds like you're getting tripped up with the application of the word "consensus". For one, it's not a popularity contest. It simply means "the sheer weight of the compelling evidence has narrowed the avenues of research to areas that continue to make sense".


Similar to the use of the word  "theory" it means something very different to the scientific community than it does to the general populace. ( Argumentum ad populum).


Perhaps you might enjoy this different approach? Rather than trying to discredit all scientific consensus as fallacious reasoning, let's compare your analysis to Real Clear Science's handy guide for denying scientific consensus in the first place. 


Tip #1: Claim a conspiracy. Feel like the whole world is against you? Well that's because it is! Scientists, politicians, journalists: they're all in collusion! Take climate change, for example. It's obvious why all those scientists "agree." They've been paid off by Big Solar and Big Wind, and are probably throwing lavish parties, complete with dancers that jump out of giant cakes shaped like beakers.


Tip #2: Use fake experts. The other side has their experts, so you need to get some, too. Finding somebody with respected credentials will be difficult, so to make up for it, just dress whoever you select in a white lab coat. If you can recruit a celebrity, do it! The public already trusts them. (Note: The more attractive the celebrity, the greater is his or her credibility.) To the anti-vaxxers out there, I recommend Jenny McCarthy.


Tip #3: Cherry-pick scientific data. Every once in a while, a scientific study will be published that supports your claims. When this happens, latch on and don't let go (despite it's obvious errors)! After all, the key to convincing others is simply to repeat your message more often than your opponents repeat theirs. If you're opposed to genetic modification, allow me to recommend a 2012 study by Gilles-Éric Séralini which found that genetically modified corn causes cancer in lab rats. Never mind that it's been universally denounced and recently retracted. The public doesn't need to know that.


Tip #4: Create unrealistic expectations of the evidence. Science is inherently uncertain; even scientists admit that! What can they ever really prove? Nothing! Climate change deniers, take Pascal Diethelm and Martin McKee's advice and "point to the absence of accurate temperature records from before the invention of the thermometer."


Tip #5: Employ logical fallacies. Straw men, red herrings, false analogies: all of these are your friends. Misrepresent the opposition! Change the subject! And here's a foolproof false analogy for evolution deniers: "As the universe and a watch are both extremely complex, the universe must have been created by the equivalent of a watchmaker." Deep, isn't it?


1. An appeal to consensus could be nothing more than a bald-faced lie.



Then this is just lying; misinformation. There's no fallacy involved because we are dealing with factual claims.



It could also be an example of cherry-picking; some power broker just hand-picked a group of scientists to query.



Cherry picking. This has less to do with appealing to consensus and more to do with presenting a misleading view of what this 'consensus' looks like. If it's cherry-picked, it's not consensus.



The "scientists" who were queried aren't real scientists. (What kind of fallacy would that be?)



Would fall under lying, but would also be an example of appeal to false authority.



The scientists were paid to take  part in a survey.



This may actually be a fallacy on your part, since you dismiss the results based on the fact the scientists were paid. This does not actually mean the results were false; it means they are suspect. Careful not to fall into ad hominem (circumstantial).



It could be an example of ambiguity;  exactly  what does a person mean by "consensus"? Are they talking about a poll?



Ambiguity fallacy


Alternatively, it could be a matter of what inferences were made based on consensus. We could have a case of fact-to-fiction fallacy, a new one Dr Bo added for the COVID-19 debate. You quote science (facts, or consensus opinion) then infer something from that science which isn't supported by it. Then, when people object, claim they are "anti-science".

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